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中文摘要：
利用中国气象局国家气象信息中心1961—2008年夏、冬两季日平均温度资料,基于偏态分布函数提出最概然温度.研究表明,最概然温度比平均温度更能合理地代表气象观测站的背景温度场.就年代际而言,在20世纪90年代中期之前,中国夏季年最概然温度以相对低温为主,随后呈现波动增温趋势,但自2005年增温趋势有所减缓.冬季年最概然温度在1961—1986年这一时段以相对低温为主,1987年到21世纪初显著变暖,但2000年后增温趋势减缓.总体而言,冬季增温幅度较夏季强,且增温时间早于夏季5—10年.本文定义的1961—1990,1971—2000和1981—2008年三个气候态的研究表明,夏季最概然温度在第三气候态增温明显,而冬季在第二气候态增温显著,在第三气候态增温趋势减弱.尤其值得注意的是,近年来在四川、广东和广西部分地区最概然温度具有下降趋势,这是否预示着中国气候态的转型还有待深入研究。
英文摘要：
Most probable temperature（MPT） is defined according to the skewed function by using daily average temperature records of the National Meteorological Information Center from 1961 to 2008 in China;it can represent every station＇s background temperature explicitly.MPT interannual variations show that MPT in summer was relativelly low-temperaturemajor before the mid-1990s and from then on was warming with fluctuation,but since 2005 the trend slowed down;and that MPT in winter was relatively low-temperature-major in 1961—1986,and from 1987 to the beginning of the 21st century was warming up obviously,but since 2000 the warming trend slowed down.The warming amplitude in winter was stronger than that in summer and the time of beginning of warming in winter was earlier than that in summer by about 5— 10 years.Studying three climate states of MPT changes of 1961—1990,1971—2000 and 1981—2008,we found that in summer MPT got warmer obviously in the third climate state,while in winter in the second state.MPT warming trend was slowing down in the third state.It＇s worthy of note that in Sichuan,Guangdong and Guangxi MPT even began to decline in the last few years.Whether it means climatic transformation or not needs further research.
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