中文摘要：

鉴于社会系统主体的适应性、结构的涌现性及演化路径的多样性,需要从情景着手来更好地研究社会系统.首先基于复杂科学视角,界定社会系统情景的深刻内涵;其次,分析社会系统情景可计算性的三层结构模型;第三,构建从实际情景到概念情景、从概念情景到结构化情景、从结构化情景到计算机实现的社会系统多元情景近似可计算模式;最后,以典型的社会系统——太湖流域复合系统为研究对象,采用＂自上而下＂与＂自下而上＂的研究思路,提出该系统情景近似可计算模式的研究方案,并分析政府不同偏好对该系统情景演化的影响,以期为社会系统研究提供新的理论元素和方法论指导.

英文摘要：

The adaptive agents of social systems,emergence of their structures and diversity of their evolution paths make their scenario research necessary. Firstly,based on the views of complex science,this paper defines the profound connotation of scenarios in social systems. Then,a three-layer structure model of computability of scenarios is analyzed in a social system. Thirdly,multivariate models of computable scenarios are built from three stages： actual scenarios to concept scenarios,concept scenarios to structured scenarios,and structured scenarios to computer implementation. Lastly,In a typical complex system of asocial system-the Taihu lake basin,a scheme on computable and approximate scenarios of the system is proposed according to the research idea of the ＂top-down＂and ＂bottom-up＂. The impacts of different government preferences on the scenarios evolution of the system are analyzed. This paper might provide new theoretical elements and methodology guidance for researches on social systems.