中文摘要：

身处在科学的洪流当中，如何判断其范式的形成和发展的状况是库恩给我们留下的历史性难题。时下“大数据”概念在政策界和学术界的火热，使得这一需求更加迫切。突破了此前科学计量学静态拍照式的关键词共现分析方法，通过引入反事实思想实验发现，“大数据”的国内外发表物关键词共现网络表现出了较低的网络稳定性。因此暂不能判断“大数据”是引领新范式的“大趋势”，甚至有必要在“学术看门人”和打造硬核方面进一步做文章。相比之下，同样产生于特定历史时期的著作《小的是美好的》却可以通过反事实的稳健性检验，反过来验证“大数据”目前“虚热”的判断。

英文摘要：

Despite all the importance of what scientific paradigm can tell us, it is difficult to identify one just sim-ply because we are so deeply involved. The popular term so-called ＇big data＇ is one of the difficulties faced by both academia and society nowadays. This paper offers an alternative method than the traditional Scientometrics which is a kind of static photograph on the section data, by introducing the counterfactual though experiment in to examine the stability of the keywords co-occurrence network. The data from CNKI implies, the keywords co-occur-rence network generated from the domestic journal publications shows an extremely low stability. Thus we cannot conclude yet, the ＇big data＇ is a ＇big trend＇ that can lead a new scientific paradigm. And more attention should be paid by both the academic ＇gatekeepers＇ and authors on how to build up the theoretical and methodological hard core, but not the bandwagon on the ＇fake popularity＇. A similar term named ＇Small is Beautify＇ which is the title of a book written in a similar special historical period is employed to verify the robustness of this method.