中文摘要：

在在最近的全球金融危机以后的中国的强壮的信用扩大带给本地管理金融车辆(LGFV ) 进聚光灯。LGFV 的快速的生长关于本地政府感激触发了担心，银行的财产质量并且，更广泛地，中国的中期的金融稳定性和统治者冒险。这份报纸构造唯一的公司级的数据集评估这个国家的本地政府债。我们发现 LGFV 的不平的分布，它在他们从 2010 ～ 2012 偿还能力的债的沿海的区域，和恶化被集中。我们与 multivariate 一起使用主要部件分析(PCA ) 区别分析(MDA ) 基于常规金融变量以及本地管理的财政地位识别 LGFV 的信用风险。我们也估计债在省的政府水平适用的安全边界。评价在与 LGFV 联系在的中间西方的省和更高的风险揭示更严格的本地政府债风险市政并且县层次。尽管将在中国有一个国债危机，是很不大可能的， LGFV 的高风险应该被改进本地政府的财政透明性并且改革财政系统注意并且有效地控制了。

英文摘要：

Strong credit expansion in China after the recent global financial crisis has brought local government financial vehicles （LGFV） into the spotlight. Rapid growth of LGFV has triggered concern about local government indebtedness, banks＇ asset quality and, more broadly, China＇s medium-term financial stability and sovereign risk. This paper constructs a unique frm-level dataset to evaluate the country ＂s local government debt. We find an uneven distribution of LGFV, which are concentrated in the coastal areas, and a deterioration of their debt repaying ability from 2010 to 2012. We use principal component analysis （PCA ） along with multivariate discriminate analysis （MDA） to identify the credit risk of LGFV based on conventional financial variables as well as local governments ＇fiscal status. We also estimate the safe boundaries of debt bearing at the provincial government level. The estimations reveal more severe local government debt risks in the middle-western provinces and higher risks associated with LGFV at the municipal and county levels. Although it is very unlikely that there will be a national debt crisis in China, the high risk of LGFV should be noted and effectively controlled by improving the fiscal transparency of local governments and reforming the fiscal system.