中文摘要：

根据灰色理论构建GM（1，1）预测模型，以湿热条件下聚丙烯和蒙脱土／聚丙烯纳米复合材料的拉伸强度变化的预测为例，研究所建预测模型在塑料老化行为预测中的适用性。聚丙烯和蒙脱土／聚丙烯纳米复合材料拉伸强度的预测结果表明，所建模型的预测精度等级为1级，模拟值与实际值的相对误差最大为4．25％，可用于塑料老化行为的预测。灰色GM（1，1）模型所需实验数据少，预测精度高，为塑料老化行为的预测提供了一种简易而可靠的新途径。

英文摘要：

GM （1, 1 ） prediction model was constructed according to Grey Theory. Regarding the prediction of tensile strength of PP and PP/MMT nanocomposites under hydro-thermal condition as an example, the applicability of constructed model in plastic aging behavior was researched. Prediction results of tensile strength for PP and PP/MMT nanocomposites showed that the prediction accuracy grades of constructed model was one, the maximum relative error between simulation value and the actual value was 4. 25%, and constructed model can be used to predict aging behavior of plastic. GM （ 1, 1 ） prediction model needed less original data, had a high prediction accuracy which was a simple and reliable method for plastic aging behavior prediction.