中文摘要：

根据改进的Morris筛选法对BTOPMC模型进行参数敏感性分析,辨析出影响淮河流域史河上游黄泥庄水文站以上集水区径流模拟结果精度的主要参数因子：导水率衰退因子m、糙率系数n0、土壤脱水函数系数alpha。在16a的逐日模拟中,1982-1987年为模型率定期,2001-2010年为模型的验证期,模拟结果显示,径流总量比值在率定期和验证期都大于99%,Nash效率系数高于0.75,BTOPMC模型模拟结果良好。

英文摘要：

BTOPMC model is used in the upstream area of Huangnizhuang Hydrologic Station. parametric sensitivity of BTOPMC for runoff simulation is analyzed by using Morris Screening Method. After calibration and validation on the basis of measured data from 1982 to 1987 and 2001 to 2010, a distributed runoff simulation model of the basin has been established. Numerical results indicate that the major sensitivity parameters are decay coefficient （m）, roughness （n0） and drying function parameter （Alpha）. In calibra- tion and validation periods, the simulated runoff is accurate, and the runoff coefficient is more similar to the observed ones.