中文摘要：

依据金沙江流域25个气象站点1961-2010年的降水观测数据,采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验及经验模态（EMD）趋势拟合等方法,分析了流域降水时空分布特征及其近期变化趋势。结果表明,金沙江流域年季降水量存在明显的区域差异。高程4 000 m以上的区域降水总体呈显著增加趋势,面平均年降水量变幅达1.68 mm/a;高程4 000-3 000 m的区域降水量总体呈不显著增加趋势,面平均年降水量变幅为0.8 mm/a;高程3 000 m以下的区域降水量总体表现为不显著下降趋势,面平均年降水量降幅为-0.59 mm/a。年降水量变化主要体现在夏秋季降水量变化上;高程4 000 m以上和3 000 m以下两个区域降水集中性和降水强度存在增加趋势,其干旱现象也愈发严重;近期流域极端降水可能存在增加趋势。

英文摘要：

The daily-precipitation data of 25 meteorological stations distributed in Jinsha River Basin from 1961 to 2014 were collected to analyze the spatial-temporal distribution and variation trend of precipitation in the basin by Mann-Kendal and EMD. The results indicate that the annual or seasonal precipitation is different regionally; the precipitation in the regions with elevation of above 4000 m increases significantly with an average rate of 1. 68 mm / a; the precipitation in the regions of elevation3000 to 4000 m shows an insignificant increasing trend with the average rate of 0. 8 mm / a; the precipitation in the regions below elevation 3000 m shows an insignificant decreasing trend with the average rate of-0. 59 mm / a. Moreover,the annual precipitation variation is mainly concentrated in summer and autumn. The concentration and intensity of precipitations in the regions of above 4000 m and below 3000 m show an increasing trend and the drought there become worse and the extreme precipitations are increasing.