中文摘要：

界面氧化是热障涂层剥落失效的重要因素,基于粗糙界面热障涂层应力场的有限元分析方法与裂纹开裂准则,采用蒙特卡罗可靠性算法分析了界面氧化开裂概率。在此基础上,利用敏感性因子分析了各参数对热障涂层可靠性的影响,发现：开裂概率随界面振幅、TGO厚度、杨氏模量、热膨胀系数差和温度差的增大而增大,随着界面波长和断裂韧性的增大而减少。因此,减少热膨胀系数失配、温度差以及TGO厚度是提高界面氧化开裂寿命的可行方法。

英文摘要：

Oxidation of the ceramic layer/bond coat interface is an important issue responsible for the failure of thermal barrier coatings（TBCs）.Hence,assessing the reliability and analyzing the dominant factors for the oxidation of the interface play a vital role in guiding the application and optimization of the TBCs.Based on the finite element method and the energy criterion for crack propagation,we analyze the probability for the failure of rough interface using the Monte Carlo arithmetic.Additionally,we also investigate the influence of each parameter on the reliability of interface via analyzing the sensitivity coefficient.The results indicate that the failure probability increases with interface roughness,TGO thickness,Yang＇s modulus,thermal expansion coefficient,and temperature difference.The probability decreases as the interface wavelength and fracture toughness increase.Therefore,reducing the thermal expansion mismatch coefficient,temperature difference,and TGO thickness is an effective approach to enhance the oxidation resistance of the interface.