中文摘要：

以长白山过伐林区金沟岭林场的云冷杉林4个局级固定样地连续12年的观测数据为研究对象,利用固定样地内主要针叶树种红松、冷杉和云杉,从1978年到1984年6年内的胸径与定期平均生长量对应值数据,建立林木径阶生长转移概率模型,预估林木径阶平均生长量,并利用1990年观测数据进行检验,结果表明：所建概率模型实际应用误差较小,精度较高;同时还分析了1978年至1990年12年间云冷杉林的枯损林木株数分布特征,通过模型模拟和检验,表明W e ibu ll分布函数适用于异龄混交林的枯损株数分布模拟。

英文摘要：

The authors studied the data of 4 permanent observation plots of spruce-fir forests in over-cutting forest area of Changbai Mountains,northeast China.These plots were continuously observed for 12 years from 1978 to 1990.In this paper,using the diameter and periodic annual increment data of main coniferous species,i.e.Pinus koraiensis,Abies nephrolepic and Picea koraiensis,the transition probability model is established,and the average increment of diameter grade is predicted.Evaluated with the data of 1990,it is found that the practical application error of probabilistic model is small and the precision is high.The authors analyzed the mortality distribution of each species among 12 years from 1978 to 1990,the results show that Weibull function is suitable for modeling uneven-aged spruce-fir forests.