中文摘要：

为了减小边坡可靠度计算在模型建立、参数估计和算法选取上的误差,建立了基于极限分析上限定理的边坡可靠度分析模型,采用最大熵原理推断边坡结构参数的统计特征,并采用Monte Carlo模拟法计算边坡的结构可靠度上限值。最后将结果与其他方法进行了比较。研究结果表明：利用最大熵原理、Monte Carlo模拟法和基于上限定理的边坡可靠度分析模型所计算的可靠度值是边坡可靠度的一个严格上限值,该模型与极限平衡法模型、R.Jimenez-Rodriguez等模型计算的结果比较接近。

英文摘要：

In order to reduce errors of reliability for slope in function establishment, parameter estimation and algorithm selection,a new reliability model for slope is established based on the upper-bound theory of limit analysis. The statistical characteristics of parameters for slope are inferred by maximal entropy principle,and the reliabilities of slope are calculated by Monte Carlo method in MATLAB. The results are compared to those of previous approaches,and it is indicated that the reliability, which is obtained by the presented method based on maximum entropy principle, Monte Carlo simulation method and the upper- bound theory model,is a rigorous upper bound solutions. The results of this calculation model are close to those calculated by limit equilibrium method and R. Jimenez-Rodriguez＇s method.