通过对1949~2006年商洛地区及所辖7个县的耕地压力指数、耕地压力变异系数进行测算和动态分析,研究结果表明:1949~2006年,①商洛地区耕地压力指数在1949~2006年间呈下降趋势,主要原因是由于期间最小人均耕地面积减少速度大于实际人均耕地面积的减少速度;近年来,耕地压力指数波动较大,这主要是由于期间个别年份自然灾害所致。且耕地压力指数大于1,区域粮食安全问题严峻。②商洛地区的人口增长、耕地面积减少,两者之间的矛盾尖锐,通过控制耕地面积减少速度、提高农业科技水平可以有效缓解耕地压力状况。③粮食总产量大幅增加,但距人均粮食消费400kg(小康水平)的差距还很大,耕地压力较大,各县耕地压力指数普遍都大于1。④各县间的同期耕地压力大小存在差异,近年来有加大的趋势。进一步探讨粮食产量与农业生产条件的相关性分析,农业科技的发展与运用直接影响着该区域粮食的产量。图4,表1,参14。
The paper calculates and dynamically analyzes the change of cropland pressure index and cropland pressure coefficient of variation in Shangluo region and its seven jurisdiction counties from 1949 to 2006.The results show: (1)the pressure index decreased from 1949 to 2006 because the speed of per capita minimal area decrease is faster than that of per capita actual and, but the cropland pressure is bigger. There are serious security problems on grain supply in Shangluo region. (2)there are sharply contradiction among population growth, grain output and cropland area reduction. It could relieve cultivated land pressure status by controlling the speed of cultivated land decreasing and enhancing the standard of agricultural science and technology. (3)although the total grain output keeps substantial increasing, it is a big gap to reach 400 kg of Per capita grain consumption. The cropland pressure is much bigger, so that every county cropland pressure'index is more than one. (4)among counties, there are some differences on cropland pressure in the same period, which is in widen trend. To further explore correlation analysis about food production and agricultural production conditions, development and application of agricultural science and technology direcdy impact on food production of the regional.