中文摘要：

考虑到医疗需求随时间动态变化而具有不确定性的特征，提出一种医疗中心动态选址方法。在该方法中，首先将选址规划期划分为多个阶段，使用指数平滑法对各阶段的医疗需求进行预测；进一步的，以整个规划期内患者与医疗中心的成本要求为目标，同时考虑医疗中心的容量限制、患者可接受路程距离的限制以及建设医疗中心的投资金额的限制，建立动态选址优化模型；通过使用Matlab求解该线性模型，可得到医疗中心的优化选址方案以及医疗中心与患者之间的分配关系。最后，通过实例分析表明了给出方法的可行性与有效性。

英文摘要：

Considering dynamical changes over time and the uncertainty of medical demand,a dynamic location method of medical center was proposed. In this method, the multiple stages of location planning period were divided at first, and the exponential smoothing method was used to forecast the medical demand at each stage. Further, a dynamic location optimization model was established,aiming at the cost requirements generated by patients and medical centers during the whole planning period,as well as the limits of medical centers＇ capacities, the acceptable journey distance of patients and the investment amount of establishing medical centers. By solving the linear model using Matlab, the optimal location scheme of medical centers and the distribution relationships between patients and medical centers were obtained. Finally, an example was given to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.