中文摘要：

为深入分析交通网络的拥塞扩散过程,得出交通拥塞传播的临界值,提出了交通拥塞传播的协调博弈模型。通过网络个体之间的协调博弈,从出行者面对拥塞的决策行为出发,描述了交通网络的拥塞扩散过程。通过网络邻居之间的行为传递,形成了交通网络的拥塞扩散模型,并利用概率母函数方法推导了交通拥塞扩散的临界条件。最后构建了交通拥塞的仿真系统,并通过路网结构、节点度分布等参数对交通拥塞进行了仿真分析。仿真实验结果与解析分析结果一致,并能反映交通拥塞动态过程信息,结果表明交通拥塞扩散的临界条件关键在于拥塞节点对周边正常节点的影响力,当局部交通拥塞对周边节点的影响力达到一定程度时,可能导致大规模交通拥塞的出现。

英文摘要：

In order to analysis the process of congestion diffusion in traffic network and obtain the critical value of traffic congestion, this paper presented a coordination game model for traffic congestion diffusion. Through the coordination game between network individuals and the decision-making behavior of travelers in traffic congestion, this paper described the process of congestion diffusion in traffic network. And according to the process of pass through the behavior of adjacent nodes in network, built a traffic network congestion diffusion model, derived the critical condition of traffic congestion diffusion with the method of probability generation function. Finally, this paper built a simulation model to analysis the influence on the traffic congestion imposed by the road network structure and the distribution of node degree. When the results of simulation is same with the results of analytical analysis, and it can reflect the dynamic information of traffic congestion, then it is found that the influence of the congested node on other adjacent nodes is the key point to find the critical condition of traffic congestion diffusion, when the influence reaches to a certain extent, a massive traffic congestion will be generated.