在回顾2015年国际原油市场主要发展历程的基础上,从两方面对2016年油价走势进行了发展态势展望和预测分析。研究认为:受全球经济形势、供需基本面因素的主要作用,在产量相对过剩情况下,尽管2015年油价已经下跌至成本价水平,但2016年油价整体还将呈现下降态势或将持续在低位震荡。预计2016年Brent、WTI原油均价为40~50美元/桶,并且两市明显价差将消失。
This paper summarizes the oil price trajectory in 2015 and then explores the prospect and trend of oil price in 2016 from two perspectives. The results argue that, affected by global economic situation and the supply-and-demand fundamental drivers, the oil price in 2016 will continue an overall downward trend or fluctuate at a low level in the case of excess production, even though oil price in 2015 has fallen to cost price. The research predicts that the average price for both of WTI and Brent crude oil in 2016 will be 40-50 USD/B and the spreads between the two markets will disappear.