中文摘要：

现有的诸多网络流量预测模型存在预测稳定性不好、精度较低等问题。针对此类问题，研究了一种通过GAFSA（全局人工鱼群算法）优化SVR模型的网络流量预测方法。GAFSA是一种群智能优化算法，寻优效果显著。采用GAFSA对SVR预测模型进行参数寻优，可以得到使预测效果最佳的训练参数；使用这组最优参数训练SVR，建立网络流量预测模型，可以很好地改善基于其他智能优化算法改进的SVR网络流量预测模型多次预测结果相差较大的问题，使预测结果趋于稳定，同时也可以提高预测精准度。仿真结果表明，GAFSA—SVR网络流量预测模型与其他模型相比，预测结果基本稳定，精准度提高到89％以上，对于指导网络控制行为、分析网络安全态势有重要意义。

英文摘要：

There are some problems, such as low precision, on existed network traffic forecast model. In accordance with these problems, this paper proposed the network traffic forecast model of support vector regression （SVR）algorithm optimized by global artificial fish swarm algorithm （ GAFSA ）. GAFSA constituted an improvement of artificial fish swarm algorithm, which was a swarm intelligence optimization algorithm with a significantly effect of optimization. The optimum training parame- ters could be calculated with optimizing by chosen parameters, which would make the forecast more accurate. With the opti- mum training parameters searched by GAFSA algorithm, a model of network traffic forecast, which greatly solved problems of great errors in SVR improved by others intelligent algorithms, could be built with the forecast result approaching stability and the increased forecast precision. The simulation shows that, compared with other models, the forecast results of GAFSA-SVR network traffic forecast model is more stable with the precision improves to more than 89%, which plays an important role on instructin~ network control behavior and analvzing security situation.