基于中国1978~2012年的省级面板数据,采用检验后的超越对数生产函数的随机前沿模型,利用两套资本存量核算方法,对中国经济增长动力的来源及其时空特征进行分析,并对2008年金融危机的4万亿元投资政策进行了效率评价。研究结果表明,中国属于典型的投资主导型经济,资本投入是中国经济增长持续稳定的最主要来源,TFP贡献率呈现逐年下降的趋势;中国经济增长动力由改革开放初期的资本、劳动力和TFP三驾马车平衡拉动,形成了现阶段的资本投入与TFP反向角力态势;区域经济差距主要源于资本投入与TFP双重差异,但TFP差异是最重要因素;4万亿元经济刺激政策下中国经济复苏属于典型的“投资主导型复苏”,是以牺牲中国生产率为代价的,TFP在2008年后呈现断崖式下降,平均拉低中国TFP达0.23~0.32个百分点。
This paper analyses the sources of China impetus of economic growth and its spatial and temporal characteristics using tested stochastic frontier translog production func- tion based on Chinese 1978~2012 provincial panel data, and evaluates the efficiency of four trillion investment policy on the financial crisis of 2008. Research result shows that: China's economy belongs to the economy led by typical investment, capital investment is the main source of economic growth in China, TFP contribution rate shows a declining trend year by year; The propulsion of China's economic growth changes from evenly pull by troika includ- ed capital, labor and TFP in prime of reform to reversed wrestle within capital and TFP at the present stage; the regional economic disparity mainly comes from capital input and TFP double difference, but the difference of TFP is the most important factor; four trillion eco- nomic stimulus policy in Chinese economic recovery is a typical investment led recovery, which is at the expense of Chinese productivity. TFP in 2008 presents a cliff drop, and pulls down the TFP as 0. 23~0. 32 percentage points in average.