中文摘要：

突发性公共危机事件的频繁爆发与微博的兴起，带给政府更多的机遇与挑战。如何利用微博这一新兴信息沟通工具与公众进行沟通，而沟通中所产生的风险如何计算，上述问题的研究对新时期的政府有着重要的意义。目前还没有将定性分析与定量分析相结合对突发性公共危机事件信息沟通方案进行决策优化的研究，因此本研究将针对突发性公共危机事件中政府信息沟通预案所存在的风险和效用进行量化测度，建立信息沟通方案的风险预估模型。旨在为政府提供有效的决策支持。

英文摘要：

With the frequent outbreaks of unexpected public emergency and the rise of microblog, government is facing more opportunities and challenges. How to use this emerging information communication tool and communicating with the public by microblog, how to calculate the risk of communication, it is significant to the government to study these problems in the new period. There is no studies on unexpected public emergency that combined with qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, therefore our study will focus on the risks and effectiveness of the government information communication plan and quantification for them, establish an information communication programs risk prediction model. Aims to provide effective decision support for the government.