中文摘要：

为了合理划分出行者类型,全面解析行程时间可靠性的本质特征,考虑到出行者的异质性,将SP调查与聚类分析结合,提出基于预留时间的出行者类型划分方法,同时应用多项Logit模型构建基于预留时间的离散选择模型,量化分析预留时间的影响因素,并得出各类出行者的比例.实例分析结果表明,出行者可分为I,II,III类,对应的预留时间分别为＂〉0.60t＂＂0.33~0.60t＂和＂〈0.33t＂,t为出行者的行程时间.三类出行者的比例分别为17.4%,49.1%和33.5%,即17.4%的出行者对路网行程时间可靠性的评价较低,说明出行者对于早高峰道路交通运行水平的评价普遍较高.

英文摘要：

In order to rationally divide travelers, the essential characteristics of travel time reliability are comprehensively analyzed. By considering the heterogeneity of travelers, SP survey method is combined with cluster analysis to propose a method for dividing travelers by buffer time. Meanwhile, a discrete choice model for buffer time based on the multinomial Logit model is constructed, through which the influence factors of buffer time are analyzed quantitatively. The proportions of all kinds of travelers are calculated. The results of case study indicate that, firstly, travelers can be divided into I, II, III, and the corresponding buffer time are ＂〉0.60＂, ＂0.33~0.60＂and ＂〈0.33＂, respectively. The proportions of I, II and III are 0. 174, 0. 491 and 0. 335, respectively, indicating that the travelers have a high evaluation towards the traffic operation level of the early peak.