笔者利用2005年~2010年中国1550个县(市)构成的大样本面板数据,使用动态面板模型系统GMM估计方法,实证分析了中国县域工业化、城镇化对农业增长的影响。研究发现,现阶段中国县域工业化并未带动农业增长,而县域城镇化则有利于农业增长,两者并未发挥出协同效应。笔者还进一步发现,两者对农业增长影响的区域效应具有空间上的不对称性;县域工业化的负效应在时间上呈弱化趋势,而县域城镇化的正效应则显著增强。
Using the panel data of 1550 Counties (Cities) in China from 2005 to 2010, and the estimation method of system-GMM, we estimate the effects of county' s industrialization and urbanization influence on the agricultural economic growth in China. Our results show that, a county' s industrialization acts as an obstacle to the agricultural growth, but its urbanization favors it, and they doesn' t play the cooperative effect. Then, we find that a county' s industrialization and urbanization have a asymmetrical regional effect. The negative effect of a county' s industrialization is on the decline, while the positive effect of a county' s urbanization has a considerable rise.