中文摘要：

搜集2008年陕西省新型农村合作医疗参合农民在各级医疗机构的住院费用数据．构建住院费用损失分布模型、新型农村合作医疗基金年度平衡模型以及不同补偿方式下住院费用次均补偿额期望值测算模型．确定2010～2012年不同补偿方式下住院费用人均筹资额，并建议从控制住院费用过快增长、控制不合理住院、合理引导病人就诊流向及建立新型农村合作医疗长效筹资机制等4个方面保证新型农村合作医疗制度可持续发展。

英文摘要：

The paper collected farmers＇ hospitalization expenses data in 2008 in various medical institutions of Shanxi new rural cooperative medical system（NRCMS）, constructed a loss distribution model, which is a model about annual balance of NRCMS funding and a calculation model of hospitalization expenses＇ compensation expectations under different compensation modes, in order to deter- mine the amount of per capita funding of hospitalization expenses at all levels under different compensation modes from 2010 to 2012. At last, the paper proposed to control the rapid growth of hospital expenses, control unreasonable hospitalization, guide the flow of pa- tients and establish a long-term financing mechanism of NRCMS so as to ensure the sustainable development of NRCMS.