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中文摘要：
在理清自然灾害风险系统构成的基础上，总结其风险评估的三种方法：基于历史数据、指标体系和情景模拟。文章采用由果及因的演绎思路，据历史灾情参考全球尺度灾害风险评估国际计划做脆弱性的评估，探讨水灾脆弱性的区域分异规律，并分析其社会经济因素。由于历史数据局限，引入信息扩散的模糊数学方法，对沿海各省区的受灾率进行风险评估，并将区域风险与脆弱性的次序进行对比，表明：脆弱性是风险的重要组分，减少脆弱性可有效降低风险，但探寻灾害发生规律、降低人类社会的暴露性，也是减少灾害风险的必要环节。
英文摘要：
The paper discusses the structure of the disaster risk system. There are three main methods in risk assessment about natural disasters： the historical disaster data based method, the indicator system based method and the method based on scenario simulation. The paper deducts the register of historical disasters, according to the idea in international risk assessment programmes about natural disasters. The paper concludes some regional differentiation rules of flood vulnerability and discusses the reasons of these phenomena in order to find out the origin of disaster vulnerability from the human society. There are not enough historical disaster data, so an information diffusion based fuzzy method is introduced to optimize the historical data and proved to be a practical method for risk assessment of natural disasters. After the order of risk and vulnerability are compared, vulnerability is proved to be a pivotal tache to risk. It is also important to find out the rule of floods and reduce the exposure of human beings to decrease the risk.
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