基于物质流分析方法,采用以物质投入与消耗为表征的环境压力函数,结合“修正后的Laspeyres方法,,并运用结构分解分析模型,分析了兰州市1990-2004年经济增长与环境压力之间的时序关系及其变化趋势和各驱动因素对它的影响程度.结果表明:随着兰州市经济的快速增长,直接物质投入与国内物质消费总体呈上升趋势,由物质投入与消耗所产生的环境压力主要是由经济增长过程中自然资源的消耗所致.人口因素和经济增长因素对环境压力的增大具有正向效应,技术因素对它则具有负向效应,人口因素对它的影响程度相对较小且比较稳定,而经济增长因素与技术因素的影响更为显著.
Based on the material flow analysis (MFA), a function of environmental pressure represented by ma- terial input and consumption was built, and the relative importance of the driving factors in the dynamic changes of the relationships between economic growth and environmental pressure in Lanzhou City during 1990-2004 was analyzed by adopting the structural decomposition analysis (SDA) model combined with the 'refined Laspeyres' method. The results showed that the degree of direct material input (DMI) and domestic material consumption(DMC) had an upward trend with the rapid economic development. Meanwhile, the environmental pressure in Lanzhou City was mainly caused by the material resources input in the process of economic growth. The population factor and economic growth factor had a positive effect on environmental pressure, but technological factor had a negative effect on it. However, the population factor had a less important impact on the increase of this environmental pressure than economic growth and technological factor.