中文摘要：

运用回归分析法、时间序列、预测理论、最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数模型及SPASS13.0统计分析软件,在分析宝鸡地区十七年来耕地、人口和粮食的基础上,对该地区最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数进行分析和预测,从而研究该区域粮食安全动态变化。研究结果显示：1991～2007年,宝鸡地区最小人均耕地面积呈降低趋势,但耕地压力指数略有上升趋势且都接近与1,粮食安全基本有保障。预测显示：在未来10年,该区最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数呈降低趋势,粮食安全问题比较乐观。这说明宝鸡地区在现有耕地和粮食产量条件下,在未来10年内,依靠农业科技进步和增加投入,不断提高耕地生产水平,对减轻耕地压力和确保粮食生产安全还是可行的。

英文摘要：

Adopting regression analysis method and the SPASS13.0 statistical analysis software,time sequence and the models of minimum cropland acreage per captia and pressure index of cropland,based on prognostic theory,the cropland area,the grain output and the yearly changes in population in Baoji district in the past 17 years were analyzed.The changing features in the minimum cropland acreage per captia and the pressure index of cropland were analyzed and prodicted to survey the dynamic of regional grain security.It was found that between 1991 and 2007,there was no obvious decrease and increase in the pressure index on cropland,which meant that grain security was ensured.The predictions suggested that in the future 10 years,the minimum cropland acreage per captia and pressure index on cropland tend to decrease,the problem of grain security is affirmative.The current cropland area in Baoji district are quite likely to reduce the pressure on cropland and ensure grain production security in the future 10 years,and agricultural advance and more investement are enhanced to raise productivity of cultivated land.