中文摘要：

流域间的降雨丰枯遭遇问题研究是洪水资源利用的基础，尝试将三维Copula联合分布模型应用于丰枯遭遇分析中，并采用集对分析的丰枯统计思路，将其分析结果写为联系度形式，进而与二维Copula联合分布模型和集对分析的结果相互印证，结果表明，3种方法分析结果一致，即北三河系各流域间的降雨，即自产水丰枯遭遇的机会较多，存在一定的丰枯同步性，印证了采用二维和三维Copula函数对各流域降雨进行丰枯遭遇联合分析方法的可行性和可信性。

英文摘要：

Synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability of rich-poor precipitation between basins is the base of flood water utilization, and 3-D joint distribution model is an attempt to use in the synchronous-asynchronous encounter analysis in this paper. The an- alytical results are given in the form of connection degree, and then the analytical results are compared with the results of 2-D copula joint distribution model and SPA by adopting the statistical way of SPA. The result shows that the conclusions of three methods, that the precipitation or the self-producing runoff of the basins are synchronous and consistent, which verifies the feasibility and credibility of 2-D and 3-D copula functions.