中文摘要：

有不同规模的很多海底的山崩在 Liwan 3-1 气体地的海底的管道线路的峡谷区域被识别了。仍然有许多机会，海底的斜坡失败将发生，并且下列集体运动将介绍大风险给海底的管道。鉴于这，一个数字预言方法基于 Eulerian-Eulerian 二阶段的流动模型被介绍模仿潜在的海底的山崩的集体运动。滑动土壤和周围的水被 Herschel-Bulkley 流变学模型和牛顿的液体模型分别地模仿。骚乱用 k- 模型被模仿。与两个相比实验数据并且是结果，二阶段的流动模型显示出好精确性，并且它的结果是更多关门到实际状况；在土壤和周围的水之间的动态联合能有效地被模仿， hydroplaning 和头分开的现象能被获得。最后，潜在的海底的山崩的土壤运动作为一个例子被模仿，根据在峡谷区域的地震侧面。结果证明 hydroplaning 发生在运动过程期间。二阶段的流动模型计算的刺杀距离是 877 m，它是 27.1% 比是大结果。然而，土壤的山峰前面速度是相对的小，与 8.32 m/s 的最大的价值。是有一个简单、快速的过程的节目能被用于初步的评估，当二阶段的流动模型为一个精确评价是更适当的时。

英文摘要：

A large number of submarine landslides with different scales have been identified in the canyon area of the submarine pipeline route of Liwan 3-1 gas field. There is still much chance that submarine slope failures would happen, and the following mass movement would present great risk to the submarine pipeline. In view of this, a numerical prediction method based on Eulerian-Eulerian two-phase flow model is introduced to simulate the mass movement of potential submarine landslides. The sliding soil and ambient water are respectively simulated by Herschel-Bulkley rheology model and Newtonian fluid model. The turbulence is simulated using the k-e model. Compared with both the experiment data and Bing result, the two-phase flow model shows a good accuracy, and its result is more close to the actual situation; the dynamic coupling between soil and ambient water can be effectively simulated and the phenomena of hydroplaning and head detachment can be obtained. Finally, the soil movement of a potential submarine landslide is simulated as an example, according to the seismic profile in the canyon area. The result shows that the hydroplaning occurs during the movement process. The runout distance calculated by the two-phase flow model is 877 m, which is 27.1% larger than the Bing result. However, the peak front velocity of soil is relative small, with a maximum value of 8.32 m/s. The Bing program with a simple and rapid process can be used for a preliminary evaluation, while the two-phase flow model is more appropriate for an accurate assessment.