近年来,如何防范和治理通货膨胀已成为中国宏观经济领域亟需解决的一项重大课题,而治理通胀的关键在于对其形成原因的科学把握。本文选取CPI和PPI作为通货膨胀的衡量指标,以产出缺口、货币供应量、国际大宗商品价格、超额工资水平、资产价格、汇率水平六大因素作为解释变量,运用向量自回归(VAR)、脉冲响应和方差分解的方法,对2000-2011年中国通货膨胀的形成原因进行实证分析,得到了各项因素的作用大小、作用时滞和传导链条的顺序,最后提出了相应的政策建议。
With the rapid economic growth of China in recent years,fighting inflation has been a major macroeconomic task,and the key point is to understand the real source of inflation.This article selects CPI and PPI as dependent variable,GDP gap,money supply,price of international commodities,excess wage,asset price and exchange rate as independent variable,uses Vector Auto-Regressive(VAR) model,impulse response and variance decomposition method to get the source of inflation in recent ten years.Finally the paper put forward some suggestions.