中文摘要：

文章选择了适合中国入境旅游收入月度数据序列预测的TRAMO/SEATS模型、SARIMA模型和半对数模型,并在剔除了人民币对美元汇率和中国国内消费水平变动对中国入境旅游收入的直接价格效应下,建立基于IOWA算子的组合预测模型,然后根据相关比较情况,定量分析危机事件及政策变动对中国入境旅游收入的影响程度和影响时滞,全面探究中国入境旅游收入、人数和人均消费的恢复状况和变化趋势。研究发现：①相关危机事件及政策变动不仅影响了境外游客来中国的决定,更影响了中国入境旅游者在中国旅游时的消费水平,造成中国入境旅游收入受影响幅度最为显著;②虽然中国入境旅游收入、人数和人均消费均表现出共同受影响的特征,但是相比中国入境旅游人数,中国入境旅游收入和人均消费恢复幅度微弱,受相关危机事件及政策变动的滞后影响更为严重。

英文摘要：

Modern tourism is a highly sensitive industry. It suffers great losses at times of crisis events and policy changes. Some scholars have assessed the impacts of such events as the SARS viral pandemic in 2003 on China＇ s inbound tourism receipts. During the period of their study, the exchange rate of the renminbi against the U. S. dollar was stable and underwent little fluctuation. Chinese domestic consumption was also at a low level. At that time, the direct price effect on China＇ s inbound tourism receipts from fluctuations in the renminbi-dollar exchange rate and Chinese domestic consumption level can be neglected. However, thereafter, the Chinese exchange-rate system underwent a significant change. The renminbi began to show an almost continuous rise against the dollar from July 2005, and Chinese domestic consumption level increased after 2006. From this period, fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate and Chinese domestic consumption thus had a significant direct price effect on China＇ s inbound tourism receipts. This paper focuses on the impacts of crisis events and policy changes that occurred after 2007 on China＇ s inbound tourism. Before examining such impacts on China＇s inbound tourism, it is necessary to eliminate the direct price effect. During the period of this study, related crisis events and policy changes included the global financial crisis, the Wenchuan earthquake, the 2008 Tibetan unrest, the Beijing Olympic Games, and fluctuations in the renminbi - dollar exchange rate and Chinese domestic consumption level. To examine the various impacts, this study used the TRAMO/SEATS model, the SARIMA model, and a semilogarithmic model that was adapted for a data series on China＇ s monthly inbound tourism receipts. A combination forecast model based on the IOWA operator was then established. This forecast model was based on China＇ s inbound tourism receipts： it eliminated the direct price effect caused by fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate and Chinese domestic consumption on China＇ s