中文摘要：

提出了一种基于AMDAR的航路气象模型。该模型通过设置虚拟观测点和应用基于卡尔曼滤波的数值气象预报释用技术，融合AMDAR数据和世界区域预报系统（WAFS）发布的格点预报数据，有效提高了航路上气象要素预报的时空分辨率、精度和航路飞行效率。仿真试验表明，航路气象模型的预测性能显著优于目前使用的WAFS预报。

英文摘要：

A new air route meteorological forecast model is presented in this paper. By introducing a new concept of virtual-observation points, using a statistical prediction system based on Kalman filter, and combining the information of AMDAR data with WAFS （World Area Forecast System） GR/B （GR/dded Binary） forecast data, this model can significantly improve the resolution and precision of meteorological forecast along the air route. The simulation result indicates that the new model has a better performance than the that of WAFS forecasting.