中文摘要：

利用1962-2012年滇中地区7个气象站降水月值数据,采用线性回归,滑动平均,Mann-Kendall突变检验和滑动T检验分析了该区域近50a年降水量和季节降水量的变化特征及突变,并用R/S方法预测了该区未来降水变化趋势.结果表明：滇中地区近50a年降水量呈减少趋势,丘陵盆地区较干热河谷区减少的更强烈;丘陵盆地区年降水量突变点在1994年,而干热河谷区年降水量无突变.年代际尺度上,丘陵盆地区各年代的年降水量始终是减少的,而干热河谷区年降水量在20世纪90年代以前始终减少,20世纪90年代呈先减后增趋势,本世纪初以来呈先增后减趋势.滇中地区春季降水呈增加趋势;夏秋季降水整体呈减少趋势;冬季降水丘陵盆地区呈增加趋势,而干热河谷区刚好相反.两地形区各年代夏秋降水一致减少,春冬降水变化不一致;两个地形区春冬降水均无突变;而夏秋季降水却存在突变点.R/S预测显示,滇中地区年降水量和季节降水量的未来变化趋势与过去的变化趋势相反且均表现为很强的反持续性.

英文摘要：

Based on the monthly mean precipitation data from 7 meteorological stations,the characteristics and abrupt change of the precipitation from 1963 to 2012 year in the middle part of Yunnan province were analyzed by linear regression,sliding average,Mann-Kendall and Slide T test.The trend of the precipitation in the future was predicted by R/S method.The results showed that the annual precipitation decreased in the past 50 a years in the middle part of Yunnan Province and that was more intense in the hill and basin area than dry and hot valley area.The abrupt change of annual precipitation appeared in 1994 in the hill and basin area：however,there was no abrupt change in dry and hot valley area.At the decadal scale,the annual precipitation always decreased in every ten years in the hill and basin area：while that decreased before 1990 s, ＂ increased-decreased＂ in 1990-2000,and ＂ increased-decreased＂ in 2001-2012 in dry and hot valley area.For the seasonal precipitation,the rainfall in the spring showed increasing,but that was opposite in the summer and autumn in both terrain areas.The rainfall in the winter increased in the hill and basin area,but that was just opposite in dry and hot valley area.The rainfall always decreased in the summer and autumn：however that was not consistent in the spring and winter at the decadal scale in both terrain areas.There was no abrupt change of the precipitation in the spring and winter in both areas：however,those of in the summer and autumn appeared.The R/S prediction showed that the trends of annual and seasonal precipitation also were very strong anti-persistence in the future,which was contrary to the trend of the past 50 a years in the middle part of Yunnan Province.