中文摘要：

2014年超强台风“威马逊”是华南地区历史上造成破坏最为严重的台风之一,所以准确预测这类超强台风在未来的发生概率具有重要的实际意义和应用价值.为了增加重现期预测的可靠性,本文采取器测资料和历史文献相结合的方法研究台风重现期.利用1949年以来台风最佳路径资料统计了65年内影响海南岛东部区域所有的年台风最大风速,并采用耿贝尔分布模型建立了海口、文昌、琼海、万宁、陵水和三亚等6个区域的台风重现期曲线.同时,基于历史文献记载描述,利用阈值法确定了海南岛东部这6个城市历史时期超级台风的重现期.结果表明,基于现代器测资料得到的相同强度台风重现期排序为文昌＜万宁＜海口＜琼海＜陵水＜三亚.统计模型结果表明,强度为62m/s台风的重现期,与以历史文献为基础重建的超强台风重现期十分接近.此外,西北太平洋台风（西太台风）和南海台风活动频数、台风能量耗散指数（PDI）的年际变化分析结果显示,西太台风对海南岛东部地区的影响频数呈明显下降趋势,而年总PDI仅略微下降,表明单个西太台风的强度可能有所增大;而南海台风对海南岛东部地区的影响频数变化波动较小,其年总PDI则表现为略上升,但总体强度变化不大.影响海南岛东部各地区西太台风的月频数存在纬向差异,纬度越高,台风高峰期出现的越晚;而影响海南岛东部各地区南海台风的月频数空间差异不显著,台风高峰期集中在7～9月.影响海南岛东部台风活动时间可以从4月持续到11月.

英文摘要：

Southern China frequently suffers serious damages from typhoons which bring about extremely high wind speed, strong rainfall and storm surges. The effects of this natural hazard include severe casualties and property losses, and dramatic changes in hydrodynamic conditions, geomorphology and ecosystems. Hence, it has become a key issue to accurately predict the return periods of super typhoons for coastal defense and management. In the present study, instrumental data and historical documents were combined to estimate the return periods of typhoons. Respectively, we filtered all the typhoon data within 100km to the center of the cities involved in this study. Based on the best tract data of typhoons from 1949 to 2014, annual maximum wind speed of typhoons influencing eastern Hainan Island was derived. Furthermore, the Gumbel Distribution method was used to reconstruct the curves of typhoon＇s return periods for six local cities, i.e., Haikou, Wenchang, Qionghai, Wanning, Lingshui and Sanya. The return periods of typhoon affecting these cities were also determined by the threshold method on the basis of an analysis of historical documents. The results from the instrumental data indicate that the return periods of typhoons with the same intensity have a sequence of Wenchang 〈 Wanning〈 Haikou 〈 Qionghai〈Lingshui〈Sanya. The return periods of super typhoons reaching a wind speed of above 62m/s by the statistical model are similar to those derived from the historical documents. Furthermore, the inter-annual variability in terms of the frequency and power dissipation index （PDI） was analyzed for the typhoons formed in the Northwest Pacific Ocean （NPC） and the South China Sea （SCS）, respectively. The frequency of occurrence of the typhoons from the NPC affecting eastern Hainan Island has a trend of remarkable decrease, but at the same time the annual total PDI decreased only insignificantly, which implies an enhanced typhoon intensity for the storms derived from the NPC. The frequency of occurrenc