中文摘要：

基于IGS数据分析中心提供的全球电离层TEC数据,利用时间序列分析理论中的ARMA模型对2008-05-12汶川Ms8.0地震的电离层TEC资料进行处理,将ARMA模型TEC预报值作为电离层TEC背景参考值,对地震前后的电离层TEC进行异常探测研究。结果表明,在取得了与其他研究方法结果基本一致的基础上,新发现震前第13d、12d、10d、7d也存在电离层TEC异常扰动现象。说明以全球电离层TEC数据为基础,利用ARMA模型同样能有效探测到震前电离层TEC异常扰动现象,并达到较高精度。

英文摘要：

In this paper,we use ionospheric TEC data provided by International GPS Service（IGS）tracking stations to examine the ionospheric variations during the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake that occurred on May 12,2008,in China.In data processing,the ARMA model based on the theory of time series is adopted,and the predicted TEC of ARMA model is regard as the background reference value of TEC in the ionosphere.Comparing the results with the previous conclusion,we also found the anomalous ionospheric disturbances 13 d,12d,10 dand 7dbefore the earthquake.The results indicate that the establishment of the ARMA model is reasonable and reliable,and it also can achieve high accuracy in the detection of the ionospheric TEC anomalies prior to earthquake effectively,based on the data derived from IGS.