中文摘要：

冲击地压态势评估是煤矿安全监测预警领域的热点及难题之一。本文以微震、电磁辐射及声发射等实时监测数据为基础，将态势评估理论引入冲击地压预测领域，建立了基于监测系统日志审计与实时修正算法相结合的冲击态势评估模型，通过改进D-S证据理论提出一种冲击地压态势量化方法。利用该方法计算得到连续时段的冲击地压态势值后，分别基于一阶灰色模型GM（1，1）及ARMA模型对冲击地压态势值进行预测并对比分析。实例结果及相关分析表明，所提冲击地压态势预测方法合理有效，能动态地反映冲击地压的发展趋势。

英文摘要：

Rock burst situation assessment is one of the key and difficult issues in the safety monitoring and early warning field of coal mining. In this paper, based on real-time data from microseism, acoustic emission and electromagnetic radiation monitoring, situation assessment theory was introduced to the rock burst prediction, and a new situation assessment model of rock burst was established based on log audit of monitoring system and real-time correction algorithm. In addition, the situation quantitative method of rock burst was put forward by improving D-S evidence theory. Moreover, by using this method to calculate situation values in continual time points, the predictive values of rock burst situation were calculated and analyzed based on GM （1, 1） and ARMA models, respectively. Test results and related analysis show that the proposed situation prediction method of rock burst is reasonable and effective, and can reflect the development trend of rock burst dynamically.