中文摘要：

本文运用ADF单位根检验、Engle-Granger两步法协整估计和误差修正模型,实证研究人民币名义有效汇率升值对我国进出口贸易的影响。结果表明：在我国以加工贸易为主的对外贸易格局中,国外总收入对我国进口的影响大于国内总收入对进口的影响;当人民币名义有效汇率升值时,我国进口量下降;我国经常项目顺差短期波动也会向长期趋势收敛。面对人民币升值压力,我国不仅要与贸易伙伴国加强沟通与协调,而且要推进加工贸易转型升级,防范因外部需求不足引致我国经济增长下滑的风险。

英文摘要：

The paper employs ADF unit-root test, Engle-Granger two-step co-integration test and VEC model to empirically study the effect of appreciation of RMB nominal effective exchange rate on the import and export trade in China. The result shows that on the context of focusing on processing trade, foreign aggregate income imposes greater effect than domestic aggregate income on import. If RMB nominal effective exchange rate appreciates, import would declines accordingly. The long term trend of current account surplus doesn＇t decrease as the decline of RMB nominal effective exchange rate, whereas short term fluctuation will converge on the tong tetra trend. Therefore, faced with the external pressure for RMB revaluation, we should trot only enhance negotiatiott and coordination with the trade partners, but facilitate the transformation of economic growth model and processing trade, and guard against the risk of decline of our economic growth resulting from the lack of external demand.