中文摘要：

针对高价值、需指定长期库存策略的一类服务备件，根据二维质保政策特点与使用率分布建立了产品在保数量计算方法，并分别针对可修与不可修部件建立了基于使用强度对可靠性影响的备件需求预测模型，并应用动态（Q，r）控制策略达到成本最优的目的。通过某挖掘机厂商相关数据，验证了模型在降低库存成本方面的有效性。

英文摘要：

Being specific to high-value spare parts that need specified long-term inventory strategies, the number of products under the warranty coverage was calculated. A demand forecasting model was developed for repairable and unrepairable spare parts. The purpose of minimal cost was achieved by applying a dynamic （Q, r） inventory control policy. The effectiveness of this model in reducing inventory costs was validated by the statistics from an escavator manufacturers.