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中文摘要：
为了对软岩巷道顶板的位移进行有效预测,防止因顶板位移过大而使得巷道破坏带来损失,利用改进Verhulst模型与灰色效果测度理论对软岩巷道顶板破坏规律进行分析。利用位移监测手段对矿山部分巷道顶板位移进行监测,利用预测精度更高的改进Verhulst模型对检测结果进行分析,得到巷道顶板的最终位移,并判断巷道破坏情况。对影响巷道顶板位移的顶板地应力、围岩质量、巷道跨度以及支护方式等因素灰色效果进行综合测量,将测度值与巷道破坏情况相结合,得到矿山各巷道顶板的宏观稳定性评价结果。研究结果表明：当灰色预测效果测度值在0～0.705 1之间时,巷道是比较稳固的,为巷道进行二次支护提供了依据。
英文摘要：
In order to effectively predict soft rock roadway roof displacement,prevent the roof displacement and roadway destruction that brings about loss,the improved Verhulst model and gray effect measure theory were used to analyse the destruction rules of soft rock roadway roof.The displacement monitoring method was used to monitor displacement of part mine roadway,roof displacement monitoring and prediction Improved Verhulst model whose accuracy is higher was used to analyse the results,the finally displacement was gotten,and the roadway destruction was judged.The roof displacement influence factors such as roof ground stress,surrounding rock quality,road span and support pattern were applied to gray comprehensive measurement,the measurement results were combined to roadway destruction,and macroscopic stability evaluation result of mine roadway roof was gotten,when the comprehensive gray effect measure value of roadway roof is between 0？0.705 1,the roadway is stable,which provides basis for roadway design of secondary support.
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