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中文摘要：
选取贵州省猫跳河流域1995年度海拔高度、坡度、人口密度、人均GDP等栅格数据，通过随机空间采样，建立1995年耕地空间分布概率多元Logistic回归方程。运用GIS技术，结合2000年相关数据，模拟2000年该流域的耕地空间分布格局，并与实际的2000年耕地空间分布格局进行验证，结果较为理想，为土地利用变化的空间分布格局模拟提供一种新方法。
英文摘要：
Land use change is an important research subject of global environmental change and sustainable development. Much attention is paid to land use change simulations because they can betterly display the mechanism of land use change and make out the relevant policies. The Maotiao River valley is located in the middle of Guizhou Province, with the developed agriculture in karst mountain area. This paper selects the elevation, slope, population density, per capita GDP as the independent variables, construct multiple logistic regression （MLR） of farmland spatial distribution probability by random sampling. Then using the GIS technology and integrating the 2000＇ s relevant data, this paper simulated the farmland distribution map. When compared the simulation map with the actual 2000＇ s farmland distribution map, about 71% of the simulation is in accordance with the 2000＇ s farmland map. The result is quite satisfactory.
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