研究我国劳动报酬份额提升,必须将其放在社会经济发展的一个特殊的大背景——跨越"刘易斯转折点"下进行。在我国的发展进程中,辽宁省具有一定的代表性,根据对产业结构和城市化水平的研究推断,辽宁省在2010年左右开始跨越"刘易斯第一转折点"。由于进入了"刘易斯第一转折点",辽宁省劳动报酬份额将会处于一个相对稳定的上升趋势。文章依据辽宁省劳动报酬份额的VEC模型以及与国际比较预测得出,2010-2020年,辽宁劳动报酬份额水平会从48.66%提升到55%~60%。而要实现这一结果,则需要从加快优化产业结构,完善制度建设以及调整人口结构等方面入手。
To study China's Labor's share ascending, we should place it under the special background of social and economic development-crossing Lewis turning point. In the course of China's development, Liaoning Province is very typical. According to the studies of industrial structure and urbanization level, Liaoning Province began to cross "the first Lewis turning point" around 2010, and will begin to cross "the second Lewis turning point" around 2020. Since entering "the first Lewis turning point", the labor's share of Liaoning Province will be in a relatively stable upward trend, so what's the trend? On the basis of VEC model of labor's share in Liaoning Province and the international comparison, this paper predicts that labor's share in Liaoning Province will increase from48.66% to about 55%-60% during 2010-2020. To achieve this result, it is undoubtedly necessary to optimize the industrial structure, improve the system construction and adjust population structure.