结合中国证券市场中关于非经常性损益信息披露的监管规则变迁,本文考察了非经常性损益信息披露对盈余属性的影响。研究发现:上市公司表外披露非经常性损益信息这一强制规定,有助于表内线下项目持续性与预测能力的正确表达,并在一定程度上有助于降低上市公司线下项目的盈余管理;当上市公司所披露的非经常性损益信息与线下项目方向一致且能够提供增量信息时,更有助于该政策发挥监管效果;通过对比不同盈余分层模式下的盈余属性,按持续性分层更有利于暂时性盈余预测能力的恰当反映。本文从监管的角度为非经常性损益信息披露政策运行的有效性提供了经验证据,有助于厘定我国上市公司的盈余持续性及预测能力,从而为进一步研究具有不同持续性的盈余信息对市场股票价格的作用机制奠定基础。
This paper presents an empirical study of non-recurring items in earnings persistence the role of the CSRC policy of disclosing and predictability, as well as how it works. After analysing the earnings of listed companies within one phase from 1996 to 1998 and another from 2000 to 2004, we find that in the first phase, below-the-line items show great positive persistence and positive predictive ability, which we call a persistence and prediction anomaly. But it is possible that the CSRC regulation on disclosing nonrecurring items would help reduce the persistence and predictability of below-theline items, especially for companies with earnings management. We also discover that improper disclosure of non-recurring items compared with below-the-line items does not eliminate the prediction anomaly or improve earnings quality. Furthermore, invalid disclosure produces another anomaly, namely the negative predictability of below-theline items, which lessens the regulatory effect of the related CSRC disclosure policy. Finally, we compare the predictability of earnings in different disclosure modes for disaggregating earnings and find that the mode of differentiating core earnings between non-recurring earnings better shows the predictive ability of earnings. In a word, the research in this paper will not only help investors better understand the earnings quality of listed companies in China, but also benefit regulators in evaluating the current system of information disclosure.