通过对1979—2008年中国煤炭行业市场集中度的测算,得出2008年以后市场结构出现类似寡头竞争的特征。根据我国煤炭行业的特殊性,提出决定产业绩效的理论模型,包含产业集中度、供需基本面、安全研发投入等关键要素。实证结果表明:产业利润率与市场集中度显著正相关;公司利润率与市场份额正相关,而同研发投入负相关。运用CDW方法分析煤炭产业利润率与集中度的正向关系,结论是效率因素较市场势力更具解释力。
Through the measurement of the market concentration ratio of China's coal industry from 1979 to 2007, this paper conclusions that after 2008 the characteristics like the oligopoly competition can be found in the market structure. In accordance with the particularities of China's coal industry, it presents a theoretic model to determine the industrial performance, which includes such key factors as industrial concentration ratio, supply and demand, investment in safety research and development, etc.. The empirical results indicate that the industrial profit rate is positively related to the market concentration ratio; the corporate profit rate is positively related to the market shares, but negative to the investment in R&D. By employing the CDW method to analyze the positive correlation between the profit rate of the coal industry and the concentration ratio, it draws a conclusion that compared with the market force the factor of efficiency is more capable to interpret.