在文献回顾的基础上,通过大量的数据分析,梳理了2001—2015年15年间中国与东南亚国家贸易发展与格局的演变历程,并采用HM指数对中国与东南亚国家的贸易依赖程度进行了深入分析。结果显示:(1)中国与东南亚国家的贸易额逐年增长。2015年,马来西亚是中国最主要的进口对象,越南是中国最主要的出口对象。马来西亚、新加坡、泰国一直是中国最主要的贸易伙伴,这几年与越南的贸易额增长迅速。(2)中国与东南亚国家的贸易额由逆差逐渐变为顺差,且顺差逐渐增大。(3)中国出口对东南亚国家的依赖程度不断加深,但小于东南亚国家出口对中国的依赖程度,非对称性显著。(4)地理区位、产业结构、关税政策等是影响中国与东南亚国家贸易格局的重要因素。
Trade communication is the key content of the strategy construction of"the Belt and Road". To study the evolution of bilateral trade patterns between China and Southeast Asian countries is of great significance for promoting economic and trade cooperation and economic prosperity of China and Southeast Asian countries along the line. On the basis of literature reviews and analysis of a large amount of date, this paper has combed the evolution of China and Southeast Asian countries' development and pattern from 2001 to 2015, and the HM Index is adopted to deeply analysis the dependency level between China and Southeast Asian countries. The result shows that: 1) Trade between Southeast Asian countries and China has increased year by year. In 2015, Malaysia is the uppermost importing country of China,and Vietnam is the uppermost one in exporting. Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand have always been China's most important trading partners, and the trade volume with Vietnam has been growing rapidly in recent years; 2)The trade volume between China and Southeast Asian countries has changed from deficit to surplus, and the surplus increased gradually; 3) The dependency level of Chinese exports toward Southeast Asian countries has increased, but not vice versa, which shows an obvious asymmetry; 4) This paper points out that the geographical location, the industrial structure and the tariff policy between China and these countries are the most important factors that influence the trade pattern between China and Southeast Asian countries.