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基于未确知测度模型的秦岭华阳古镇景区暴雨防灾减灾能力评价
  • ISSN号:1004-4574
  • 期刊名称:《自然灾害学报》
  • 时间:0
  • 分类:X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]
  • 作者机构:陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西西安710119
  • 相关基金:国家自然科学基金项目(41371497)
中文摘要:

旅游景区灾害的防治关系着景区收入和游客的生命财产安全。如何建立评价指标体系,有效评估景区的防灾备灾、应急处置和救援救助等灾害综合管理能力,是目前我国灾害管理中迫切需要解决的问题。以秦岭华阳古镇景区为研究对象,以暴雨灾害为切入点,以防灾减灾能力科学评价为研究内容,构建了景区暴雨灾害防灾减灾评价三级指标体系;采用相似权法,确定了各级指标权重;通过建立未确知测度模型,定量化评价了景区暴雨灾害防灾减灾能力。得到如下结论:华阳古镇景区2011,2013,2014年的防灾减灾能力分别为较低、中等、较高,其暴雨防灾减灾能力逐年增强,计算结果与实际基本吻合,说明该评价指标体系能较客观地反映景区暴雨灾害防灾减灾能力,具有一定的可行性;监测预警能力对景区防灾减灾能力的影响程度最大,景区在未来的防灾减灾管理中,应以监测预警作为重点工作。

英文摘要:

The prevention and control of disasters in scenic spots is closely related to the income of scenic spot, as well as the life and property safety of tourists. How to establish a scientific and effective evaluation index system is an urgent problem in the disaster management of China, which can be used to effectively assess the disaster prevention and preparedness, emergency response, rescue etc. disaster comprehensive management capabilities, with Qinling Mountains Huayang scenic area as the research object, rainstorm disaster as the breakthrough point, and scientific evaluation of disasler prevention and mitigation capacity as research content, a three-level index system was constructed to scientifically evaluate the capacities of rainstorm disaster prevention and mitigation. In this study, similarity weight method was used to determine the weights of index at all levels; the unascertained measure model was established to quantitatively evaluate the capabilities of scenic spot rainstorm disaster prevention and mitigation. Conclusions are as follows : the capabilities of disaster prevention and mitigation in Huayang ancient scenic spot present respectively as low, medium and high in years of 2011,2013 and 2014, the rainstorm disaster prevention and mitigation capacity increases year by year; results are basically consistent with the actualities, which means the evaluation index system can objectively reflect the scenic spot rainstorm disaster prevention and reduction ability and has certain feasibility; the capability of monitoring and early warning has the biggest influence on the ability of scenic spot prevention and mitigation. Based on the above, the scenic spot should focus attention on monitoring and early warning in the future management of disaster prevention and mitigation.

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期刊信息
  • 《自然灾害学报》
  • 北大核心期刊(2011版)
  • 主管单位:中国地震局
  • 主办单位:中国灾害防御协会 中国地震局工程力学研究所
  • 主编:谢礼立
  • 地址:哈尔滨市学府路29号
  • 邮编:150080
  • 邮箱:jnd@iem.net.cn
  • 电话:0451-86652450 86652820
  • 国际标准刊号:ISSN:1004-4574
  • 国内统一刊号:ISSN:23-1324/X
  • 邮发代号:
  • 获奖情况:
  • 中国自然科学核心期刊,中国科技论文统计源期刊
  • 国内外数据库收录:
  • 荷兰地学数据库,荷兰文摘与引文数据库,英国科学文摘数据库,日本日本科学技术振兴机构数据库,中国中国科技核心期刊,中国北大核心期刊(2004版),中国北大核心期刊(2008版),中国北大核心期刊(2011版),中国北大核心期刊(2014版),中国北大核心期刊(2000版)
  • 被引量:21121