中文摘要：

本文利用时间序列分析方法建立了辛安泉流量模型。根据泉流量模型计算出1981～2006年的资源量并与天然资源量进行了对比分析。结果显示：辛安泉系统的功能在逐渐退化,导致系统退化的原因是人类的开采和泉域系统内降雨量的减少。目前系统仍具有维持其水资源稳定的能力。

英文摘要：

A model for the discharge of the Xin＇an Spring was developed with time-series analysis method.The water resources in the basin from 1981 to 2006 were evaluated with the model and compared with the water resources under natural conditions.Based on the research results,the following conclusions can be drawn：（1） the function of the Xin＇an Spring system is deteriorating,（2） deterioration is caused by groundwater withdrawal from the basin as well as the decrease in precipitation in the basin,and（3） the Xin＇an Spring system can still maintain the stability of its water resources under current conditions.