本文应用多区域CGE模型,模拟分析了碳排放交易机制下碳排放许可初始分配对区域经济发展的影响。结果显示:(1)碳排放许可采用全部拍卖并将拍卖收入返还给企业的分配方式造成的GDP损失最小,但是会加剧区域经济发展不平衡;(2)免费发放部分采取绝对量标准对区域经济的影响最为明显,但利用这种方式改善区域经济不平衡状况的成本很高;(3)免费发放部分采取强度分配标准对GDP和区域经济不平衡造成的负面影响较小。是较优的碳排放许可初始分配方式。
This article analyzes the apportion of carbon permits and its influence on regional economy through a multi-regional CGE model in China. Simulation results show that: (1) auction with revenue recycled back to enterprises makes lowest negative effect on GDP, but deepens the unbalanced development of regional economy; (2) absolute quantity based allocations exert great influence on regional economy, but the cost of using this method to ease the unbalanced regional development is very high; and (3) intensity based allocations are relatively good because they exert a little negative effect on GDP and unbalanced development of regional economy.