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中文摘要：
为有效降低水上交通风险、提高安全管理效率,对风险的成因及因素间的耦合作用进行诊断和研究。在对水上交通风险的成因及因素间的耦合机理进行分析的基础上,引入贝叶斯网络（Bayesian Network,BN）构建水上交通风险成因耦合作用的诊断模型。结合水上交通事故数据进行算例应用,推理人员因素、船舶因素和环境因素等不同因素间的耦合作用对风险的影响,并根据事故后果诊断风险成因间的耦合作用。结果表明：不同风险因素间的耦合对水上交通风险的影响程度不同,多因素的耦合作用比单因素强;环境因素与其他因素的耦合作用对水上交通风险的影响比较突出,且船舶因素对水上交通事故后果的影响较大。
英文摘要：
In order to reduce water transportation risk effectively and improve safety management efficiency,it is necessary to research risk factors and their coupling effects.The diagnostic model of the coupling effects of water transportation risk causing factors is built by Bayesian Network（BN） on the basis of analyzing the risk factors and their coupling mechanism.The effect of coupling between different risk factors is studied quantitatively;the relation among risk factors and the accident consequences is investigated.The illustrative example shows that the coupling effect of multiple factors is stronger than that of single factor.The influence of coupling effect among environmental factor with others on water transportation risk is more prominent,and ship factor is an important factor affecting the consequences of maritime accidents.
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