中文摘要：

在斜坡的可靠性分析，从斜坡的最可得到的稳定性分析过程导出的表演功能通常是含蓄的并且不能被一阶的秒时刻途径解决。一条新可靠性分析途径基于三维的 Morgenstern 价格方法被介绍在稳定性分析调查山崩的三维的效果。获得可靠性索引，支持向量机器(SVM ) 被使用接近性能函数。这条途径费时间仅仅是在一样的计算精确性的 0.028% 那使用的 Monte-Carlo 方法。另外，砍的时间效果的影响三维的斜坡的长期的可靠性上的斜坡土壤的力量参数被这条新途径调查。斜坡的可靠性索引将在 52.54% 减少，失败概率将增加从，这被发现 0.000 705% ～ 1.966% 。最后，斜坡的可靠性索引上的 c 和 f 的变化系数的影响被拿进讨论，变化趋势被观察。

英文摘要：

In the reliability analysis of slope, the performance functions derived from the most available stability analysis procedures of slopes are usually implicit and cannot be solved by first-order second-moment approach. A new reliability analysis approach was presented based on three-dimensional Morgenstem-Price method to investigate three-dimensional effect of landslide in stability analyses. To obtain the reliability index, Support Vector Machine （SVM） was applied to approximate the performance function. The time-consuming of this approach is only 0.028% of that using Monte-Carlo method at the same computation accuracy. Also, the influence of time effect of shearing strength parameters of slope soils on the long-term reliability of three-dimensional slopes was investigated by this new approach. It is found that the reliability index of the slope would decrease by 52.54% and the failure probability would increase from 0.000 705% to 1.966%. In the end, the impact of variation coefficients of c andfon reliability index of slopes was taken into discussion and the changing trend was observed.