目前国内外对FDI的研究主要关注FDI东道国和母国双边的影响因素。本文在此基础上,将第三方国家经空间加权后的影响因素考虑进来,试图为这方面相对缺乏的实证研究提供补充。由于输入国市场间的依赖度与跨国公司的贸易有重要关联,我们将贸易成本(距离)作为空间权重,基于1995-2005年的美国输出FDI和中国输入FDI的面板数据,先忽略空间相关性,用传统的两国家三因素模型进行估计,而后使用近期发展起来的空间面板数据广义矩估计方法来建立新的复合FDI模型,对比两个模型可以发现第三方国家的影响是显著的。
Recently most researches on foreign direct investment (FDI) only focus on the bilateral determinants. This paper attempts to rectify this situation by considering not only bilateral determinants, but also spatially weighted third-country determinants. Since the dependency among host markets is particularly related to multinationals' trade between them, we use trade costs (distances) as spatial weights. Using panel data on U. S. industries and host countries observed over the 1995--2005 period, we estimate a "complex FDI" version of the knowledge-capital model of U. S. outward FDI by various recently developed spatial panel data gener- alized moments (GM) estimators. Then we use the same model to estimate Chinese inward FDI. We find that third-country effects are statistically siznificant.