中文摘要：

为了获得全球电离层闪烁模式GISM在中国低纬地区预测的精度和可靠性，利用海南三亚GPS电离层闪烁监测系统一年的观测数据与模式预测结果进行对比分析。结果表明，在太阳活动低年，GISM能较好地反映海南地区电离层闪烁的季节变化、日变化和空间分布特性；对于季节变化，模式与观测结果在中等强度闪烁条件下较为相符，而在强闪烁和弱闪烁条件下有不同程度的偏差；模式预测的闪烁日变化与实际观测基本一致，但在闪烁发生率出现最大值的时间上模式预测要滞后约1h左右；在电离层闪烁发生率的空间分布上，模式预测与实际观测较为相符，即海南地区南面电离层闪烁发生率高于北面。

英文摘要：

In this paper, the Global Ionospheric Scintillation Model （GISM） has been introduced.Comparison between the model predictions with observations over Hainan region has been made using one year＇s data. The results show a good overall agreement between GISM predictions and observations in seasonal variation, diurnal variation and spatial distribution. In seasonal variation, GISM predictions agree in general with observations at moderate scintillation level, but there is more deviation at weak or strong scintillation levels. In diurnal variation, GISM predictions accord with observations on the whole, except for a delay of about one hour in the occurrence maximum. In spatial distribution, both observations and predictions show that occurrence in the south of Hainan is higher than that in the north.