中文摘要：

随着机场飞行流量和跑道使用频率的不断增加,跑道侵入事件日趋频繁,而人为风险是其主要致因。将波动原则法和专家征询法相结合确定了机场跑道侵入人为风险评价指标的阈值,基于灰色聚类理论构建了机场跑道侵入人为风险评价指标的三角白化权函数,对参与综合评价的专家评分结果进行定量分析,分别计算出正常预警、轻度预警、中度预警和重度预警四个级别的评价系数,并得出各指标的综合聚类系数,根据隶属度原则判断风险等级。研究结果有助于指导机场规避造成人员操作或判断失误等的风险源,预防和缓解机场跑道侵入的人为风险,强化机场保障能力。

英文摘要：

With the sustainable growing of flight flow and runway frequency, runway incursions have become more frequent, and human risk is the main cause. The thresholds of the runway incursion human risk assessment indexes are calculated with the fluctuations method and experts consulted method. The triangle whiten function of airport runway incursion＇s human risk assessment indexes based on grey cluster theory is constructed. Expert assessment scoring results and the evaluation coefficients of four different levels, normal warning, mild warning, moderate warning and severe warning are analyzed. Comprehensive clustering coefficient of each index is obtained. And the risk level is determined according to the principle of membership. The result is conducive for airports to avoid risk sources of employees＇ operational errors and misjudgment, prevent and remit the human risk of airport runway incursion, and improve airport security capabilities.