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中文摘要：
为研究我国城市安全生产的影响因素及预测城市安全生产的发展趋势,以上海市为例,对2004—2010年期间与安全生产相关的数据进行灰色关联度分析,提取影响安全生产状况的主要经济社会因素,并与工矿商贸死亡人数之间建立回归模型。研究结果表明,工矿商贸死亡人数与第二产业比重、GDP增长率、教育支出占GDP比重以及私营及个体工商户比例均呈现负相关。基于2007—2011年各月份上海市的安全生产死亡人数,运用Winters乘法模型,预测上海市安全生产发展趋势。
英文摘要：
In order to find the influence factors of the urban work safety and forecast the trends, data related with work safety from 2004 to 2010 in Shanghai were analyzed for grey correlation degree. The main economic and social factors influencing safety situation were extracted, and a regression model with the death number was built. The research results show that industrial, mining and trading sectors business deaths are negatively related with the proportion of the second industry, the GDP growth rate, education expenditure proportion of GDP, as well as individual business household ratios. Winters multiplication model was used to predict the development trends of safety production in Shanghai according to its safety production status from 2007 to 2011.
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