中文摘要：

基于天童地区1954-2009年日序列气象数据,采用周广胜NPP模型,研究了天童地区近60年气候变化规律及其对常绿阔叶林NPP的影响,结果表明：1）近60年,天童地区月平均气温、降雨量和月参考蒸散量（ET0）在7、8月份明显增加,年平均气温、降雨量和ET0增加趋势十分显著（P〈0.001）;2）天童地区常绿阔叶林56年NPP的平均值为12.196t.hm-2.a-1,近60年升高趋势极为显著（P〈0.0001）;3）未来温度升高2℃,降水量增加20%的情景下,该地区常绿阔叶林的NPP将升高15.9%。未来温度升高2℃,降水量减少20%的情景下,NPP将降低4.9%。未来温度升高2℃,降水量不变的情景下,NPP将增加5.5%;4）年降雨量、ET0年均值和年平均气温是影响NPP变化的主要因子。

英文摘要：

Based on the 1954-2009 daily meteorological data of Tiantong region,and using Zhou Guangsheng＇s net primary productivity（NPP）model,this paper studied the recent 60 years climate change pattern and its effects on the NPP of evergreen broad-leaved forest in the region.In recent 60 years,the monthly average values of air temperature,precipitation,and reference evaportranspiration（ET0）in the region had an obvious increase in July and August,and the annual mean air temperature,precipitation,and ET0 increased significantly（P0.001）.The NPP of the evergreen broad-leaved forest in 56 years was averagely 12.196 t·hm-2·a-1,and increased significantly in recent 60 years（P0.0001）.In the future,if the air temperature increased by 2 ℃ and the precipitation increased by 20%,the NPP of the evergreen broad-leaved forest in the region would be increased by 15.9%;if the air temperature increased by 2 ℃2.1 and the precipitation decreased by 20%,the NPP would be decreased by 4.9%;and,if the air temperature increased by 2 ℃ and the precipitation was unchanged,the NPP would be increased by 5.5%.Annual average precipitation,ET0,and air temperature were the main meteorological factors affecting the NPP of evergreen broad-leaved forest in the region.